Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,872,660$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.01 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,850,769.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,850,769.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $108,211$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,106.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 46.9)}}\) (asimptote \(106,106.4\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,279,447$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $95,269$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,919.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(95,919.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,717$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(595 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,620.7}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,620.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,368$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $105,680$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,612.3}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 72.8)}}\) (asimptote \(174,612.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,545$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(311 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,923.1}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 65.6)}}\) (asimptote \(20,923.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,377$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $15,044$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,419.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 59.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,419.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $363$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(35.1 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{360.6}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(360.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,062$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $18,319$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,139.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 60.4)}}\) (asimptote \(22,139.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $520$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(88.7 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{506.5}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(506.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,325$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,880$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,502.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,502.1\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $243$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(18.3 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{338.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 58.2)}}\) (asimptote \(338.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,989$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,154$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(40 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,282.6}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 77.9)}}\) (asimptote \(14,282.6\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $158$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,017$ on 2020-06-04
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,781$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(72.4 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,052.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 62.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,052.7\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $52$ on 2020-06-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.94 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 69.8)}}\) (asimptote \(117.4\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,515$ on 2020-06-04
